Contemporary management 6th edition pdf free download

A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system. A subset of climate models add societal factors to a simple physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth and energy use affect — and interact with — the physical climate. With this information, scientists can produce scenarios of how greenhouse gas emissions may vary in the future.

Scientists can then run these scenarios through physical climate models to generate climate change projection. Climate models include different external forcings for their models. The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates. The environmental effects of global warming are broad and far-reaching.

They include the following diverse effects:. Ecosystem changes: In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, as well as poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.

The effects of climate change on human systems, mostly due to warming or shifts in precipitation patterns, or both, have been detected worldwide. The future social impacts of climate change will be uneven across the world. Regional impacts of climate change are now observable on all continents and across ocean regions.

Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative. By , between million and million people are projected to experience increased water stress due to climate change in Africa.

Generally impacts on public health will be more negative than positive. Climate change has been linked to an increase in violent conflict by amplifying poverty and economic shocks, which are well-documented drivers of these conflicts. In small islands and mega deltas, inundation as a result of sea level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements.

Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and low adaptive capacity. Regions may even become uninhabitable, with humidity and temperature reaching levels too high for humans to survive. Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change are two complementary responses to global warming. Successful adaptation is easier in the case of substantial emission reduction.

Mitigation of climate change is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, or the enhancement of the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Over the last three decades of the twentieth century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.

Attribution of emissions due to land-use change are subject to considerable uncertainty. Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.

Near- and long-term trends in the global energy system are inconsistent with limiting global warming at below 1. Co-benefits of climate change mitigation may help society and individuals more quickly. For example, cycling reduces greenhouse gas emissions [] while reducing the effects of a sedentary lifestyle at the same time [] The development and scaling-up of clean technology, such as cement that produces less CO 2.

The most effective and comprehensive policy to reduce carbon emissions is a carbon tax [] or the closely related emissions trading. The most significant action individuals could make to mitigate their own carbon footprint is to have fewer children, followed by living car-free, forgoing air travel, and adopting a plant-based diet. Climate change adaptation is the process of adjusting to actual or expected climate change and its effects. The public section, private sector and communities are all gaining experience with adaptation and adaptation is becoming embedded within certain planning processes.

Adaptation is especially important in developing countries since those countries are predicted to bear the brunt of the effects of global warming. Climate engineering sometimes called geoengineering or climate intervention is the deliberate modification of the climate.

It has been investigated as a possible response to global warming, e. A study from investigated the most common climate engineering methods and concluded they are either ineffective or have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change.

As of all countries in the world are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC , but 12 countries have not ratified it, [] which means they are not legally bound by the agreement. During these negotiations, the G77 a lobbying group in the United Nations representing developing countries [] pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to '[take] the lead' in reducing their emissions. This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention.

These first-round commitments expired in In several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord, [] [] which has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, leading poor nations to reject it. The agreement replaced the Kyoto protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets are set in the Paris agreement. Instead, the procedure of regularly setting ever more ambitious goals and reevaluating these goals every five years has been made binding.

Scientific discussion takes place in articles that are peer-reviewed and assessed by scientists who work in the relevant fields and participate in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The scientific consensus as of stated in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is that it 'is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the midth century'. A report by the U. National Academy of Sciences stated that most scientists by then agreed that observed warming in recent decades was primarily caused by human activities increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The report said that preventing such crises will require a swift transformation of the global economy that has 'no documented historic precedent'.

In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. In the 20th century and early s some companies, such as ExxonMobil, challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagreed with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.

The global warming problem came to international public attention in the late s and polling groups began to track opinions on the subject. From about onward, American conservativethink tanks had begun challenging the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged the scientific evidence, argued that global warming would have benefits, and asserted that proposed solutions would do more harm than good.

Global warming has been the subject of controversy, substantially more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature, [] [] with disputes regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the midth century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is completely or partially an artifact of poor measurements.

Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, what the consequences of global warming will be, and what to do about it. Due to confusing media coverage in the early s, issues such as ozone depletion and climate change were often mixed up, affecting public understanding of these issues. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.

In a response to perceived inaction on climate change, a climate movement is protesting in various ways, such as fossil fuel divestment, [] worldwide demonstrations [] and the school strike for climate. The history of climate change science began in the early 19th century when ice ages and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect first identified.

In the s, the warming effect of carbon dioxide gas became increasingly convincing. Since then, scientific research on climate change has expanded. The greenhouse effect was proposed by Joseph Fourier in , discovered in by Eunice Newton Foote, [] [] expanded upon by John Tyndall, [] investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in , [] and the hypothesis was reported in the popular press as early as Research in the s suggested increasing temperatures, and a newspaper reported 'climate change'.

This phrase next appeared in a November report in The Hammond Times which described Roger Revelle's research into the effects of increasing human-caused CO 2 emissions on the greenhouse effect 'a large scale global warming, with radical climate changes may result'.

There were increasing heatwaves and drought problems in the summer of , and when Hansen testified in the Senate on 23 June he sparked worldwide interest. In , the English economist William Forster Lloyd published a pamphlet which included a hypothetical example of over-use of a common resource. This was the situation of cattle herders sharing a common parcel of land on which they are each entitled to let their cows graze, as was the custom in English villages.

He postulated that if a herder put more than his allotted number of cattle on the common, overgrazing could result. For each additional animal, a herder could receive additional benefits, but the whole group shared damage to the commons. If all herders made this individually rational economic decision, the common could be depleted or even destroyed, to the detriment of all.

In , ecologistGarrett Hardin explored this social dilemma in his article 'The Tragedy of the Commons', published in the journal Science. Hardin discussed problems that cannot be solved by technical means, as distinct from those with solutions that require 'a change only in the techniques of the natural sciences, demanding little or nothing in the way of change in human values or ideas of morality'.

Hardin focused on human population growth, the use of the Earth's natural resources, and the welfare state. Parents breeding excessively would leave fewer descendants because they would be unable to provide for each child adequately. Such negative feedback is found in the animal kingdom. Consequently, in his article, Hardin lamented the following proposal from the United Nations:.

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights describes the family as the natural and fundamental unit of society. In addition, Hardin also pointed out the problem of individuals acting in rational self-interest by claiming that if all members in a group used common resources for their own gain and with no regard for others, all resources would still eventually be depleted. Overall, Hardin argued against relying on conscience as a means of policing commons, suggesting that this favors selfish individuals — often known as free riders — over those who are more altruistic.

In the context of avoiding over-exploitation of common resources, Hardin concluded by restating Hegel's maxim which was quoted by Engels , 'freedom is the recognition of necessity'. He suggested that 'freedom' completes the tragedy of the commons. By recognizing resources as commons in the first place, and by recognizing that, as such, they require management, Hardin believed that humans 'can preserve and nurture other and more precious freedoms'.

Hardin's article was the start of the modern use of 'Commons' as a term connoting a shared resource. Like Lloyd and Thomas Malthus before him, Hardin was primarily interested in the problem of human population growth. But in his essay, he also focused on the use of larger though finite resources such as the Earth's atmosphere and oceans, as well as pointing out the 'negative commons' of pollution i. As a metaphor, the tragedy of the commons should not be taken too literally.

The 'tragedy' is not in the word's conventional or theatric sense, nor a condemnation of the processes that lead to it. Similarly, Hardin's use of 'commons' has frequently been misunderstood, leading him to later remark that he should have titled his work 'The Tragedy of the Unregulated Commons'. The metaphor illustrates the argument that free access and unrestricted demand for a finite resource ultimately reduces the resource through over-exploitation, temporarily or permanently.

This occurs because the benefits of exploitation accrue to individuals or groups, each of whom is motivated to maximize use of the resource to the point in which they become reliant on it, while the costs of the exploitation are borne by all those to whom the resource is available which may be a wider class of individuals than those who are exploiting it. This, in turn, causes demand for the resource to increase, which causes the problem to snowball until the resource collapses even if it retains a capacity to recover.

The rate at which depletion of the resource is realized depends primarily on three factors: the number of users wanting to consume the common in question, the consumptiveness of their uses, and the relative robustness of the common.

The same concept is sometimes called the 'tragedy of the fishers', because fishing too many fish before or during breeding could cause stocks to plummet. The tragedy of the commons can be considered in relation to environmental issues such as sustainability. The commons dilemma stands as a model for a great variety of resource problems in society today, such as water, forests, [18] fish, and non-renewable energy sources such as oil and coal.

Situations exemplifying the 'tragedy of the commons' include the overfishing and destruction of the Grand Banks, the destruction of salmon runs on rivers that have been dammed — most prominently in modern times on the Columbia River in the Northwest United States, and historically in North Atlantic rivers — the devastation of the sturgeon fishery — in modern Russia, but historically in the United States as well — and, in terms of water supply, the limited water available in arid regions e.

In economics, an externality is a cost or benefit that affects a party who did not choose to incur that cost or benefit. Negative externalities are a well-known feature of the 'tragedy of the commons'. For example, driving cars has many negative externalities; these include pollution, carbon emissions, and traffic accidents.

Every time 'Person A' gets in a car, it becomes more likely that 'Person Z' — and millions of others — will suffer in each of those areas. A parallel was drawn recently between the tragedy of the commons and the competing behaviour of parasites that through acting selfishly eventually diminish or destroy their common host.

The idea of evolutionary suicide, where adaptation at the level of the individual causes the whole species or population to be driven extinct, can be seen as an extreme form of an evolutionary tragedy of the commons. The commons dilemma is a specific class of social dilemma in which people's short-term selfish interests are at odds with long-term group interests and the common good.

Commons dilemma researchers have studied conditions under which groups and communities are likely to under- or over-harvest common resources in both the laboratory and field. Research programs have concentrated on a number of motivational, strategic, and structural factors that might be conducive to management of commons.

In game theory, which constructs mathematical models for individuals' behavior in strategic situations, the corresponding 'game', developed by Hardin, is known as the Commonize Costs — Privatize Profits Game CC—PP game. They organize these classes and distinguish between psychological individual differences stable personality traits and situational factors the environment. Situational factors include both the task social and decision structure and the perception of the task.

Empirical findings support the theoretical argument that the cultural group is a critical factor that needs to be studied in the context of situational variables. Strategic factors also matter in commons dilemmas. One often-studied strategic factor is the order in which people take harvests from the resource. In simultaneous play, all people harvest at the same time, whereas in sequential play people harvest from the pool according to a predetermined sequence — first, second, third, etc.

There is a clear order effect in the latter games: the harvests of those who come first — the leaders — are higher than the harvest of those coming later — the followers. The interpretation of this effect is that the first players feel entitled to take more.

With sequential play, individuals adopt a first come-first served rule, whereas with simultaneous play people may adopt an equality rule. Another strategic factor is the ability to build up reputations. Research [ by whom? Moreover, those who harvest less gain greater prestige and influence within their group.

Much research [ whose? Hardin stated in his analysis of the tragedy of the commons that 'Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all. Groups are more likely to endorse a leader when a common resource is being depleted and when managing a common resource is perceived as a difficult task.

Groups prefer leaders who are elected, democratic, and prototypical of the group, and these leader types are more successful in enforcing cooperation. A general aversion to autocratic leadership exists, although it may be an effective solution, possibly because of the fear of power abuse and corruption. The provision of rewards and punishments may also be effective in preserving common resources.

Selective punishments for overuse can be effective in promoting domestic water and energy conservation — for example, through installing water and electricity meters in houses. Selective rewards work, provided that they are open to everyone.

An experimental carpool lane in the Netherlands failed because car commuters did not feel they were able to organize a carpool. In Canada, utilities considered putting 'smiley faces' on electricity bills of customers below the average consumption of that customer's neighborhood. Articulating solutions to the tragedy of the commons is one of the main problems of political philosophy. In many situations, locals implement often complex social schemes that work well.

The best governmental solution may be to do nothing. When these fail, there are many possible governmental solutions such as privatization, internalizing the externalities, and regulation. Sometimes the best governmental solution may be to do nothing.

Robert Axelrod contends that even self-interested individuals will often find ways to cooperate, because collective restraint serves both the collective and individual interests. Appell criticized those who cited Hardin to 'impos[e] their own economic and environmental rationality on other social systems of which they have incomplete understanding and knowledge.

Political scientist Elinor Ostrom, who was awarded 's Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for her work on the issue, and others revisited Hardin's work in In general, it is in the interest of the users of a commons to keep them functioning and so complex social schemes are often invented by the users for maintaining them at optimum efficiency.

Similarly, geographer Douglas L. Johnson remarks that many nomadic pastoralist societies of Africa and the Middle East in fact 'balanced local stocking ratios against seasonal rangeland conditions in ways that were ecologically sound', reflecting a desire for lower risk rather than higher profit; in spite of this, it was often the case that 'the nomad was blamed for problems that were not of his own making and were a product of alien forces.

Examining relations between historically nomadic Bedouin Arabs and the Syrian state in the 20th century, Dawn Chatty notes that 'Hardin's argument […] was curiously accepted as the fundamental explanation for the degradation of the steppe land' in development schemes for the arid interior of the country, downplaying the larger role of agricultural overexploitation in desertification as it melded with prevailing nationalist ideology which viewed nomads as socially backward and economically harmful.

Elinor Ostrom and her colleagues looked at how real-world communities manage communal resources, such as fisheries, land irrigation systems, and farmlands, and they identified a number of factors conducive to successful resource management. One factor is the resource itself; resources with definable boundaries e.

A second factor is resource dependence; there must be a perceptible threat of resource depletion, and it must be difficult to find substitutes. The third is the presence of a community; small and stable populations with a thick social network and social norms promoting conservation do better.

When the commons is taken over by non-locals, those solutions can no longer be used. Governmental solutions may be necessary when the above conditions are not met such as a community being too big or too unstable to provide a thick social network. Examples of government regulation include privatization, regulation, and internalizing the externalities. One solution for some resources is to convert common good into private property, giving the new owner an incentive to enforce its sustainability.

Libertarians and classical liberals cite the tragedy of the commons as an example of what happens when Lockean property rights to homestead resources are prohibited by a government. In a typical example, governmental regulations can limit the amount of a common good that is available for use by any individual. Permit systems for extractive economic activities including mining, fishing, hunting, livestock raising and timber extraction are examples of this approach. Similarly, limits to pollution are examples of governmental intervention on behalf of the commons.

In Hardin's essay, he proposed that the solution to the problem of overpopulation must be based on 'mutual coercion, mutually agreed upon' and result in 'relinquishing the freedom to breed'. Hardin discussed this topic further in a book, Managing the Commons, co-written with John A. Several countries have a variety of population control laws in place.

German historian Joachim Radkau thought Hardin advocates strict management of common goods via increased government involvement or international regulation bodies. Privatization works when the person who owns the property or rights of access to that property pays the full price of its exploitation. As discussed above negative externalities negative results, such as air or water pollution, that do not proportionately affect the user of the resource is often a feature driving the tragedy of the commons.

Internalizing the externalities , in other words ensuring that the users of resource pay for all of the consequences of its use, can provide an alternate solution between privatization and regulation. One example is gasoline taxes which are intended to include both the cost of road maintenance and of air pollution. This solution can provide the flexibility of privatization while minimizing the amount of government oversight and overhead that is needed.

Radical environmentalist Derrick Jensen claims the tragedy of the commons is used as propaganda for private ownership. He argues that in true situations, those who abuse the commons would have been warned to desist and if they failed would have punitive sanctions against them.

He says that rather than being called 'The Tragedy of the Commons', it should be called 'the Tragedy of the Failure of the Commons'. Marxist geographer David Harvey has a similar criticism, noting that 'The dispossession of indigenous populations in North America by 'productive' colonists, for instance, was justified because indigenous populations did not produce value', and asks generally: 'Why, for instance, do we not focus in Hardin's metaphor on the individual ownership of the cattle rather than on the pasture as a common?

Hardin's work was also criticised [61] as historically inaccurate in failing to account for the demographic transition, and for failing to distinguish between common property and open access resources. She argues that social changes and agricultural innovation, and not the behaviour of the commoners, led to the demise of the commons.

Some authors, like Yochai Benkler, say that with the rise of the Internet and digitalisation, an economics system based on commons becomes possible again. He wrote in his book The Wealth of Networks in that cheap computing power plus networks enable people to produce valuable products through non-commercial processes of interaction: 'as human beings and as social beings, rather than as market actors through the price system'. He uses the term networked information economy to refer to a 'system of production, distribution, and consumption of information goods characterized by decentralized individual action carried out through widely distributed, nonmarket means that do not depend on market strategies.

In certain cases, exploiting a resource more may be a good thing. Carol M. Rose, in a article, discussed the concept of the 'comedy of the commons', where the public property in question exhibits 'increasing returns to scale' in usage hence the phrase, 'the more the merrier' , in that the more people use the resource, the higher the benefit to each one.

Rose cites as examples commerce and group recreational activities. According to Rose, public resources with the 'comedic' characteristic may suffer from under-investment rather than over usage. Global warming is a long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system, an aspect of climate change shown by temperature measurements and by multiple effects of the warming.

In , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concluded, 'It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the midth century. Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century, the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.

Effects of global warming include rising sea levels, regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, and expansion of deserts. Overall, higher temperatures bring more rain and snowfall, but for some regions droughts and wildfires increase instead. Globally, a majority of people consider global warming a serious or very serious issue. Multiple independently produced datasets confirm that between and , the global average land and ocean surface temperature increased by 0.

The warming evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, documented by many independent scientific groups, [36] for example in most continental regions the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation has increased.

Global warming refers to global averages, with the amount of warming varying by region. Since , global average land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as global average ocean temperatures. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, its arrangement around the Arctic Ocean has resulted in the maximum surface area flipping from reflective snow and ice cover to ocean and land surfaces that absorb more sunlight.

Because the climate system has large thermal inertia, it can take centuries for the climate to fully adjust. While record-breaking years attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend. Global surface temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long-term trends, and can temporarily mask or magnify them.

An example of such an episode is the slower rate of surface temperature increase from to , which was dubbed the global warming hiatus by the media and some scientists. Other changes emanate from so-called external forcings. These forcings are 'external' to the climate system, but not necessarily external to Earth.

Attributing detected temperature changes and extreme events to manmade increases in greenhouse gases requires scientists to rule out known internal climate variabilities and natural external forcings.

So a key approach is to use physical models of the climate system to determine unique fingerprints for all potential external forcings. By comparing these fingerprints with the observed pattern and evolution of the climate change, and the observed evolution of the forcings, the causes of the observed changes can be determined.